A RECORD-BREAKING El Niño developing in the Pacific could increase the chances of a wet and stormy autumn in the Wye Valley and Forest of Dean and yet more flooding, followed by an increased risk of icy cold spells later in the season.

The Met Office confirmed last month that the developing El Niño had surpassed previous records, making it the strongest event in the observational record.

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than average, altering weather patterns thousands of miles away.

Although the Wyedean area is a long way from the Pacific, forecasters say the phenomenon can influence weather across north-west Europe, including the UK.

With memories still fresh of last November’s devastating floods in and around Monmouth last November, the Met Office says there is an increased likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions during this autumn and early winter, while El Niño is associated with a greater risk of cold snaps later in the season.

Natural Resources Wales dredged the River Monnow at Monnow Bridge last month, in a bid to prevent a repeat of the flooding that left shops, offices and houses along Monnow Street and across the river several feet deep in water.

Stormier weather could also cause problems across the region’s wooded areas, particularly if strong winds arrive after prolonged rain has left the ground saturated.

Forestry England has been carrying out work to make waterways and woodland more resilient to extreme weather in the Forest, including creating wetlands and reconnecting streams with floodplains to slow water moving downstream.

Government scientists say October to December could see an increased chance of stronger westerly winds, low pressure, heavy rain and flooding, while early 2027 carries a slightly increased risk of northerly and easterly winds and sudden cold snaps.